Stocks Are Surging, Volatility Is Dead, and One Number Just Made History

Published: Sunday May 31, 2026 @ 13:01 EDT
Duration: 25.93 minutes
Views: 226
Likes: 15
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 27 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode analyzes the robust structural health and mechanical strength supporting the ongoing equity market advance. I look at the data confirming underlying market stability despite a compressed volatility environment.

The main topics covered include:

* The drop in the 1-Month Implied Correlation Index (COR1M) to a historic closing print of 6.33%.
* The strong “risk on” regimes sustained across the proprietary Market HRV and Early Warning frameworks.
* The negative pairwise correlations within mega-cap stocks driving active market dispersion.
* The steep contango and deep structural cushion within the VIX futures term structure.
* A follow-up look at one declining measure of market liquidity.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Bad News Every Day — Stocks Keep Going Up. Here's Why. :: VSJ Ep 26

Published: Sunday May 24, 2026 @ 13:51 EDT
Duration: 30.02 minutes
Views: 248
Likes: 14
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 26 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode examines underlying market resilience and the volatility complex following a strong stretch through the first three weeks of May. I analyze why structural market health continues to defy daily geopolitical headlines and other stressors. Topics discussed:

* The design, upward trajectory, and current status of the proprietary Market HRV framework
* VIX’s compression regime and why it matters to markets
* The evolution of the VX curve throughout May, and how June VX’s reign as the front month is starting off
* Volatility composition dynamics following Nvidia earnings
* Rotational mechanics between the major equity indices
* Relief within fixed income markets and its impact on the broader landscape
* A surprising drop in liquidity worth monitoring

The full deep-dive session is available below.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Nvidia Dropped 4.5% — The Market Didn't Care. Here's Why. :: VSJ Ep 25

Published: Sunday May 17, 2026 @ 16:15 EDT
Duration: 40.28 minutes
Views: 297
Likes: 19
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 25 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode examines the underlying market mechanics and volatility dynamics that kept equities stable through a mixed week of single-stock pullbacks and geopolitical headlines. I look at the specific rotational forces operating at and underneath the indices and break down why the volatility complex is refusing to price in broader market panic.

Topics covered:

* Cross-index rotational mechanics between the Dow, Russell, S&P 500, and Nasdaq
* Mega-cap leadership shifts and the single-stock volatility burden
* The VIX/VVIX correlation drop and June futures term structure premiums
* Treasury market dynamics and the changing correlation between the 10-year yield and the MOVE Index
* Diverging credit market indicators and a 10-day tactical credit decay signal

Watch the episode for the full data review and charts.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

S&P 500 All-Time High — But Volatility Won't Budge

Published: Sunday May 10, 2026 @ 12:58 EDT
Duration: 35.48 minutes
Views: 460
Likes: 25
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to Episode 24 of Vol Street Journal™!

The majority of the past three episodes focused on all of the positive developments I was seeing in markets. Last week, mixed in with all of the positives were a few early signs of a market that was starting to get out over its skis. And for this week’s episode, I spent half the time exploring what’s on this growing list of concerns and the other half reviewing what continues to be healthy about this market. This “on the one hand…” dynamic is a sign of the market’s evolution.
Topics this week, in no particular order:

* Plunging correlations between the VIX, VVIX, and VIX futures
* The accelerating outperformance of the Nasdaq relative to the Russell 2000
* Healthy capital rotation and leadership changes among mega-cap stocks
* Persistent “overvixing” despite the S&P at new highs
* “Market up/vol up” action in the Nasdaq
* Increased noise in fixed strike and fixed delta skew measures

While the rally remains strong with the market in general good health, the underlying structural foundation is displaying some early signs of cracks.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Vol Crush Is Back — Don't Celebrate Yet :: VSJ Ep 23

Published: Sunday May 03, 2026 @ 11:27 EDT
Duration: 42.57 minutes
Views: 200
Likes: 14
Favorite: 0
Description: This week’s episode examines the continued improvement in market health as we transition further into a constructive volatility regime. I analyze the normalization of the variance risk premium and the structural cushions now present in the VIX futures term structure. Other topics include:

* Intraday bifurcation between the VIX and VVIX and the significance of the 95 level.
* Index vol getting some relief from a drop in stock vol.
* 30-day SPX realized volatility dropping below 12% for the first time in several weeks.
* Recent upticks in the MOVE index as the rates market reactivates.

Watch the full deep-dive below to assess the current risk environment.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Stocks Hit All-Time Highs. The VIX Didn't Get the Memo :: Vol Street Journal Ep 22

Published: Sunday April 19, 2026 @ 13:30 EDT
Duration: 45.15 minutes
Views: 294
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: Hello and welcome to Episode 22 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s episode examines the structural shift in volatility as the VIX is once again a teenager and the health of the VIX futures term structure continues to improve. I look at the breakdown of the VIX complex and why the relationship between index volatility and individual stock volatility is at a crossroads. Other highlights:

* The ratcheting down of VIX “ceilings, floors, and pivot points” as the market moves beyond the war in the Middle East.
* Why an elevated VIXEQ and already low COR1M have changed the main driver of VIX’s next move.
* Analysis of the VX term structure and the 3-point cushion between spot VIX and the newly minted front-month contract, May.
* The shift from chronic undervixing to overvixing during the equity rally.
* Why a negative variance risk premium reduces some of the downward pull on implied volatility.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Vol Crush May Already Be Over :: VSJ Ep 21

Published: Sunday April 12, 2026 @ 09:00 EDT
Duration: 39.82 minutes
Views: 368
Likes: 16
Favorite: 0
Description: This week’s episode analyzes why the massive volatility crush following recent de-escalation may be running out of gas and why this matters for equities. I examine the technical state of “undervixing” and why current market structures suggest limited further downside for implied volatility unless individual stock volatility takes a nosedive. I also explore:

* The collapse of implied correlations (COR1M) from 42 down to 13.50
* A very flat VIX futures curve that removes the structural drag on volatility markets
* The MOVE Index plunging back below 80 as Treasury markets stabilize
* Incremental improvements in CME book depth and liquidity measures
* Tightening high-yield and investment-grade credit spreads

The full deep-dive is available now.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Oil Spiked 10%. Stocks Rallied. Here's Why :: VSJ Ep 20

Published: Sunday April 05, 2026 @ 12:21 EDT
Duration: 28.77 minutes
Views: 357
Likes: 19
Favorite: 0
Description: Hello, and welcome to Episode 20 of Vol Street Journal™!

This week, I look at what might be the first real cracks in the “war trade” regime. Despite the ongoing tension in Iran and a big jump in oil late in the week, the data suggests the market’s structural plumbing is actually beginning to stabilize.

In this episode, I cover:

* The decoupling of the S&P 500 and Treasuries from the price of oil
* VIX and VVIX failing to confirm new S&P lows while the VIX futures curve settles
* The impact of a 10-point collapse in implied correlations (COR1M) in just two sessions
* Fixed strike skew retreating from extreme 100th percentile levels
* The MOVE index returning to its primary 80–120 range

The signals are starting to stack up in a way that warrants a closer look at the risk environment.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The 'Prove It' Market: Why Every Rally Is Getting Sold :: VSJ Ep 19

Published: Sunday March 29, 2026 @ 11:44 EDT
Duration: 38.57 minutes
Views: 333
Likes: 20
Favorite: 0
Description: This week I examine the accelerating downside move in equities as major indices break out of long-standing compression regimes. I focus on the shifting character of the volatility market and why it is no longer responding to “good news” headlines with the same ease as it once did. That’s not all, though. I also discuss:

* VIX futures tracking spot price more closely as a signal of persistent market stress
* The impact of the JPMorgan hedged equity fund put strike at 6475 ahead of Tuesday’s expiration
* Rising implied correlations and their role in driving index-level volatility higher
* The MOVE Index testing the 120 level as 10-year rates continue to climb

Watch the full breakdown for an assessment of the current risk environment and the levels I am watching heading into next week.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Market Signal Everyone's Missing Right Now :: VSJ Ep 18

Published: Sunday March 22, 2026 @ 14:48 EDT
Duration: 36.83 minutes
Views: 344
Likes: 19
Favorite: 0
Description: I’m on the road and short on time so no big preamble this week. But, once again, markets threw a lot at us last week so there was plenty to cover:

- Convergence in the VIX Curve: Why the narrowing spread between VIX futures and spot indicates the vol market’s sensitivity to underlying moves is heightened.

- Skew Flattening: Analyzing the noteworthy Thursday and Friday move where put IV actually dropped during a 120-point flush.

- Implied Correlation Highs: How the reversal of January’s extreme lows is now driving index-level stress.

- The MOVE Index Recorrelation: Treasury volatility is no longer decoupled from rates, signaling a broader contagion into fixed income.

- Liquidity and Credit: Tracking the “Orange” regime shift in credit spreads and the thinning book depth in S&P futures.

- Watch the full breakdown below where I assess the levels that warrant watching as the new week opens.

Here we go!

My links:
https://macro-ops.com/
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Market Bled Lower While Volatility Quietly Gave Up :: VSJ Ep 17

Published: Sunday March 15, 2026 @ 13:48 EDT
Duration: 38.88 minutes
Views: 315
Likes: 13
Favorite: 0
Description: The Art of the Tell

In an unstable market, the most informative signals are often the most subtle. While the indices ended the week testing their recent lows, several technical developments appeared under the surface—potential “tells” that warrant a closer look as we attempt to gauge if the market environment is evolving.
In this episode, I focus on the “Art of the Tell.” Rather than reacting to headline price moves, I analyze the divergences and volatility mechanics that can provide an early heads-up when the internal character of the market begins to shift.
Key observations in this session:

- The VIX/VVIX Divergence: I examine the “Market Down / Vol Down” action on Friday, noting how the SPX printed a lower low while volatility indices remained below their prior peaks.

- VIX ATR & Pivot Points: How the Average True Range helps us assess the magnitude of volatility moves as important anchor levels continue to rise.

- Volatility Composition: A look at how rising implied correlations (COR1M) are interacting with individual stock volatility (VIXEQ), and what that mix tells us about index-level pressure.

- Compression Regimes: With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coiled on both daily and weekly timeframes, we discuss the high-velocity potential of these setups and the importance of watching for false breakouts.

- Macro Clues: Tracking the re-correlation of the 10-year yield and the MOVE index, alongside the recent rise in inflation breakevens.

This session is a deep dive into the hunt for subtle signals—learning what to look for to determine if, and when, the market’s internal regime is actually starting to change.

Here we go!

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Market Panicked. But Something Didn't Add Up.:: VSJ Ep 16

Published: Sunday March 08, 2026 @ 10:01 EDT
Duration: 41.83 minutes
Views: 330
Likes: 17
Favorite: 0
Description: Failed Fades, Forced Hands, & Signs of Capitulation

The first week of March proved to be a significant reality check for the “early fade” narrative. While many expected the initial geopolitical shock to roll over quickly, the opposite occurred: oil futures surged above $90 on Friday, the Treasury market remained under intense pressure, and equities struggled to find their footing, ending the week near their recent lows.

In Episode 16 of Vol Street Journal, I break down the structural mechanics of a market where “hands are being forced.” From an extreme overvixing event on Friday to a fully inverted VX curve, the data suggests that we’ve moved past simple hedging and into a regime of forced liquidations and tactical panic.

However, amidst the noise, a few critical divergences have emerged that every trader should be watching. While the VIX spiked to new highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notably held above their recent lows. Are we looking at a legitimate capitulation signal, or is the “unstable equilibrium” simply preparing for another expansion to the downside? I dive into the VRP cushion, the normalization of the MOVE index, and why the Nasdaq’s relative resilience might be the only thing holding the floor together.

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Market Is Missing Something... (It's Not What You Think) :: VSJ Ep 15

Published: Sunday March 01, 2026 @ 11:13 EST
Duration: 35.23 minutes
Views: 277
Likes: 11
Favorite: 0
Description: An Unstable Equilibrium: A Leaderless Market

In Episode 15 of Vol Street Journal, I dive into why this market environment feels so structurally disjointed. I focus on the VIX and its inability to escape an ever-climbing center of gravity. Months ago, the VIX was anchored around 16; that level eventually moved up to 18, and we are now seeing 20 as the point around which the VIX is unable to find meaningful separation in either direction. This steady climb in the volatility baseline is a core reason the market remains under pressure even during relief rallies.

This ascent in the volatility baseline was already in place before this weekend’s dramatic escalation in the Middle East. With the launch of “Operation Epic Fury,” the “unstable equilibrium” I’ve been tracking is facing its most significant test yet.

In this episode, I also break down the impact of not having a reliable market leader, specifically how the Nasdaq flipped from leading the market higher on Wednesday to leading it lower on Thursday, even after strong earnings from Nvidia. That’s not the type of leadership we want. I also analyze the internal friction preventing a volatility crush: while individual stock volatility (VIXEQ) is finally dropping post-earnings, it is being neutralized by rising implied correlations.

Finally, I examine the “no cushion” VX term structure, the abnormal disconnect between the MOVE index and Treasury rates, and the signals starting to surface in credit markets.

Watch the full breakdown to see why this regime remains unstable, and how the levels I’ve been watching are set to collide with a new geopolitical reality.

Here we go!

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The VIX Did Something Unusual This Week... And It's Predicting What Comes Next :: VSJ Ep 14

Published: Sunday February 22, 2026 @ 11:16 EST
Duration: 32.08 minutes
Views: 333
Likes: 15
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to this week’s episode of Vol Street Journal™!

In Episode 14 of the Vol Street Journal, I break down a week defined by a high-stakes tug-of-war. While the bulls successfully defended the critical 6800 floor for the third time this year, the volatility markets are telling a far more complex story.

I open the episode with a deep dive into Tuesday’s action, where two subtle divergences and a “Herculean” effort from one mega-cap stock managed to steady the ship just as bears were threatening to break the neckline. Between a “no cushion” VX term structure and a rising “war premium” in the Middle East, the standard Friday volatility crush has been notably absent—further supporting the thesis that we remain in a structurally higher volatility regime.
In this episode, we cover:

- The Non-Confirmation: Why the VIX failing to print a higher high while equities hit lower lows was the “tell” of the week.

- Structural Fragility: Analyzing the flat VX curve and what it means for the market’s ability to absorb the next shock.

- Bond Market Divergence: Keep a close eye on the growing disconnect between the MOVE Index and the 10-Year Treasury Rate. Bond volatility is rising even as yields stabilize—a rare signal that has preceded big moves in rates in the past.

- The Weekend Risk: Why geopolitical headlines are overriding traditional theta decay.

Watch the full technical breakdown to see why the “onus” remains squarely on the bulls to prove this rally is sustainable.

Here we go!

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Why 16 May Be the New VIX Floor :: VSJ Ep 13

Published: Sunday February 15, 2026 @ 11:54 EST
Duration: 36.35 minutes
Views: 343
Likes: 18
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to this week’s episode of Vol Street Journal™!

The bulls defended the 6800 level for the third time this week, but underneath the surface, the ‘internal thermometer’ is still running hot. In Episode 13, I break down why the VIX floor is structurally migrating higher and what a rising MOVE index is telling us about the bond market’s growing discomfort—even as rates drop.

We also dive into index level rotation, volatility composition, and why the current VX curve inversion might be noisier than it looks with February expiration just days away.

Also inside this week’s episode:

- A VVIX divergence on Tuesday that anticipated Thursday’s VOL spike.
- Why 16 is becoming the ‘new basement’ for the VIX.
- The mechanical reality of sustaining a vol spike from the 20s.

Here we go!

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The VIX Is Sending a Signal Most Traders Miss :: VSJ Ep 12

Published: Sunday February 08, 2026 @ 11:31 EST
Duration: 35.08 minutes
Views: 373
Likes: 15
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to this week’s episode of Vol Street Journal™!

This week’s VIX move wasn’t about panic — it was about structure.

We break down what’s happening beneath the surface of the VIX futures curve, why volatility is leading risk, and what this shift could mean for stocks, markets, and macro positioning going forward.

Thanks, as always, for watching. Here we go!

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

The Market’s Tug-of-War Has Begun :: VSJ Ep 11

Published: Sunday February 01, 2026 @ 13:44 EST
Duration: 36.97 minutes
Views: 450
Likes: 17
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to this week’s episode of Vol Street Journal™!

There’s always a tug-of-war taking place in markets. Buyers versus sellers, bulls versus bears, macro versus micro, and so on. From my vantage, the struggle in today’s market has been between structural market strength and environmental agitation. I open this week’s episode with a discussion about what this means and how it is playing out. From there, I take it around the horn with stops to look at the recent market up/vol up action, fixed strike vol, liquidity, and a dislocation between credit spreads and the VIX. I wrap up with check-ins on rotation and volatility composition where we see implied correlation starting to lift off from very low levels, which should not be ignored.

Subscribers liked the summary PDF I included with last week’s video so I’ve provided one this week, as well.

Thanks, as always, for watching. Here we go!

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

This Is How I Judge Market Risk Using Vol :: VSJ Ep 10

Published: Sunday January 25, 2026 @ 15:25 EST
Duration: 47.90 minutes
Views: 398
Likes: 19
Favorite: 0
Description: Welcome to this week’s episode of Vol Street Journal™!

In this week’s episode I go back in time to explore what happened in the lead up to the infamous “Volmageddon” event from early 2018. If you had known what to look for, you would not have been on the wrong side of that blowup.

The reason for this walk down memory lane is to illustrate how I use VIX futures to help me measure the overall health of the equity market, and what my process told me going into this past week’s selloff. When combined with market mechanics, which I also explore in the episode, it’s possible to look past all the noise out there and truly understand how at risk the market is at any given time for a significant fracturing.

But before I get to all of that, I take a look at the VIX complex and fixed strike volatility to highlight some important clues the market gave us during and after Tuesday’s market rout. I also revisit volatility composition to see what changed since last week’s deep dive into implied correlation, index vol, and index constituent vol.

Here we go!

My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Why Vol Hasn’t Panicked Yet :: VSJ Ep 9

Published: Sunday January 18, 2026 @ 19:13 EST
Duration: 36.03 minutes
Views: 325
Likes: 12
Favorite: 0
Description: Programming note: I had some technical difficulties and had to remove the video component of the introduction. The video kicks back in after the intro but there are times when the audio and video are out of sync. It’s not very distracting, thankfully, since the majority of the episode’s focus is on my charts, not my mug.

In this week’s episode I narrowed my focus to three topics of interest:

1.- The VIX complex

2.- The “composition” of volatility

3.- Tales From The Tape

In the first section, I walk through an informative signal that arose from a divergence between VVIX and the broader measure of implied volatility of VIX options. I then take a quick look at the VIX futures curve throughout January before wrapping up with my answer to a question I received about the recent upward drift of the VIX.

The second section is arguably the most important as I spend some time explaining the interplay between index level volatility and the volatility of the constituents of that index. I also discuss the dispersion trade and what ties all of these together. Spoiler alert: its correlation.

And lastly, in Tales From The Tape, I zoom in on the price action in the Dow on Tuesday and why combining that price action with positioning and the CPI print set me up to get short. Shorting the stock market is a terrible idea in most cases, but sometimes my conditions are met and my system says go, so I go.

Before I wrap things up, I revisit one of my favorite topics: rotation. The Russell continues to lead equities higher, and so far VOLs have mostly accepted this. They’re still most at ease when the Nasdaq is out front, but they haven’t thrown a tantrum yet, which is important.


My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Markets Are Calm. Here’s What the Vol Data Explains :: VSJ Ep 8

Published: Sunday January 11, 2026 @ 12:47 EST
Duration: 39.43 minutes
Views: 387
Likes: 13
Favorite: 0
Description: It’s good to be back after a few weeks away. Markets were mostly quiet over the holidays, and the first week of 2026 wasn’t all that exciting either. The S&P is at all-time highs, the VIX is sporting a 14-handle, and the VIX futures term structure says all is fine (in markets).

In this week’s episode we:

1. Catch up on the VIX complex, i.e. VIX, VVIX, VX futures.
2. Explore how decreasing realized volatility in the S&P 500 has contributed to the drop in implied volatility.
3. Revisit what I refer to as volatility composition, where we find implied correlations at a noteworthy level. I circle back here later in the video to highlight a possible signal coming from divergences between various measures of implied correlations and the VIX.
4. Take a quick stop at my fixed strike volatility spreadsheet to see what skew is telling us.
5. Check in on Treasury vol, liquidity, and credit markets.
6. See how VOLs reacted this week as equities rotated between small caps and the mega caps.


My links:
https://thefreedominion.substack.com/
https://x.com/volstreetj
https://x.com/vixedsignals

What Is Macro Ops?

Macro Ops is a global macro research and consulting firm that works with a wide range of clients — from hedge funds and pension funds to family offices and sovereign wealth funds. We also partner with individual traders and investors.

Our clients typically manage significant capital, from millions to billions of dollars, so our research is designed to meet the depth and sophistication their strategies require.

https://macro-ops.com/

***All content, opinions, and commentary by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.